Abstract: According to the self-healing failure mechanisms of metallized film pulse capacitors in the inertial confinement fusion (ICF) laser device, a more appropriate reliability evaluation method based on shock model was proposed. In existing accelerated degradation test, failure threshold is often constant which is determined in advance, but this is unreasonable in considering individual differences of reliability products and different environmental impact. To solve this problem, the degradation modeling method based on the shock model with random threshold was proposed. Then we used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate parameters. Finally, the random threshold of assessment was compared with fixed threshold, and the reasonability of the proposed model and method was confirmed by simulation of metallized film capacitors. Further analysis shows that different threshold distribution mean values and variances have different influence on the reliability of products.